Poker Odds
7:53 PM
Every decision you make at the poker table involves basic mathematics whether you choose to factor it into your thought process or not, having a comprehensive understanding is an invaluable tool as it gives you the power to determine whether the odds are in your favour.
Expectation is the amount of money you expect to make or lose by making the same play over and over again in the same situation, if you will lose money in the long term by making such a play then it has a negative expectation whereas if the play makes money in the long term it has a positive expectation.
Example: If you are in a situation which earns $20 80% of the time and lose $100 20% of the time then your play has a negative expectation.
(20 * 0.8) - (100 * 0.2) = 16 - 20 = -$4
Example: If you are in a situation which earns $40 70% of the time and lose $50 30% of the time then your play has a positive expectation.
(40 * 0.7) - (50 * 0.3) = 28 - 15 = +$13
Expectation is the amount of money you expect to make or lose by making the same play over and over again in the same situation, if you will lose money in the long term by making such a play then it has a negative expectation whereas if the play makes money in the long term it has a positive expectation.
Example: If you are in a situation which earns $20 80% of the time and lose $100 20% of the time then your play has a negative expectation.
(20 * 0.8) - (100 * 0.2) = 16 - 20 = -$4
Example: If you are in a situation which earns $40 70% of the time and lose $50 30% of the time then your play has a positive expectation.
(40 * 0.7) - (50 * 0.3) = 28 - 15 = +$13
Outs
An out is a card in the deck which will improve your hand, it's possible to count the number of outs you have and convert this information into a percentage chance of winning the hand, odds can be derived from the percentage and compared with pot odds to determine whether you are getting good or bad value to continue with the hand. The usefulness of your outs not only depends on your hole cards in relation to the community cards but also your opponents hole cards, if they already hold the nut flush and you have just a straight draw, your outs are useless because they won't make you the winning hand.
Example: You have KcQc, the board shows Jc10c4s so you have an open ended straight flush draw with 2 overcards which means you have 21 outs (9 for flush, 6 for straight, 6 for overcards) and equates to a 69.9% chance, you have nine clubs and three aces and three 9's, plus you have three Kings and three Queens to make top pair. You don't even have a pair yet and you are a 69% favourite to crack an opponent holding J7.
Some outs can be counted on as being more useful than others, if you have an open ended straight flush draw with 2 overcards, the 15 outs that make the straight and the flush are more likely to win the hand than the 5 outs that would make top pair; a sensible strategy factors this in especially when you just have 2 overcards or when you are unsure about the strength of your opponents hand.
Example: You have KcQc, the board shows Jc10c4s so you have an open ended straight flush draw with 2 overcards which means you have 21 outs (9 for flush, 6 for straight, 6 for overcards) and equates to a 69.9% chance, you have nine clubs and three aces and three 9's, plus you have three Kings and three Queens to make top pair. You don't even have a pair yet and you are a 69% favourite to crack an opponent holding J7.
Some outs can be counted on as being more useful than others, if you have an open ended straight flush draw with 2 overcards, the 15 outs that make the straight and the flush are more likely to win the hand than the 5 outs that would make top pair; a sensible strategy factors this in especially when you just have 2 overcards or when you are unsure about the strength of your opponents hand.
